Overdue Union appreciation

Relegation battling Mainz play host to Union Berlin this Saturday, Christian Heidel’s men hit the headlines a few weeks back beating Champions League semi finalists RB Leipzig but came crashing back down to earth last week with a 2-0 loss at home to newly promoted Stuttgart. Union Berlin on the other hand continue to impress, comfortably in the top half of the Bundesliga, they stuttered a little in one goal losses to Leipzig and Augsburg in recent weeks but nonetheless this is a side with the capabilities to be knocking on the door of the top six for the rest of the campaign. Despite their excellent process and solid as a rock defensive line, the bookies’ are still providing value in getting on side with Urs Fischer’s men, I will take that as long as it lasts.

Process

Union have been comfortably better in the boxes this season compared to Mainz who have only won twice. The Iron Ones sit in eighth just three points off the Europa League spots, at the halfway stage of the season for a club with one of the lowest budgets in the league, that is mindblowing. But the scary thing is they are well worth it and I expect them to be there or thereabouts right up until the final day.

The hosts have scored 18 goals this term, the third least in the division, from 23.7 expected goals, so a large underperformance, one that with the sale of Jean-Philippe Mateta I do not see ending soon. They have conceded 40 goals, only Schalke have a worse record, from 35.5 expected goals, another underperformance which will give the club hierarchy hope at avoiding relegation but with a seven point gap between them and Arminia Bielefeld in the relegation playoff spot, it is looking bleak.

Union have scored 34 from 26.5 expected, a mid table process, that in the absence of the injured Max Kruse will hold them back. However it is their backline that is astonishingly good, conceding 24 from 21 expected goals, the second best expected goals against record in the division, even stronger than that of star studded Bayern Munich. The Union Berlin defence is the showpiece in this match.

Goals?

• Mainz have scored in four of 10.
• Mainz have conceded in nine of 10.
• Mainz have seen both teams score in four of 10.
• Mainz have seen over 2.5 goals in three of 10.
• Union have scored in nine of 10.
• Union have conceded in eight of 10.
• Union have seen both teams score in seven of 10.
• Union have seen over 2.5 goals in five of 10.

There is value in backing Union outright but I have found value in a more cautious play just below evens.

Mainz - Union Berlin Betting Tip

Double Chance Union Berlin to Win or Draw + Mainz to Score Under 1.5 goals with Betway at odds of 1/1 or 1.99.

Bet Double Chance Union Berlin to Win or Draw + Mainz to Score Under 1.5 goals on Betway