Koln winless since March sees Union top value
Once again Union Berlin are standing out as the surprise package of this Bundesliga season. Against the odds they achieved an 11th placed finish as a newly promoted, level on points with local rivals Hertha, currently sat fifth yet the bookies continue to underestimate them, outsiders for a trip to relegation threatened Koln. The hosts still have not won a league match since lockdown and have lost key performers from last term in Jhon Cordoba and Mark Uth, with Union’s 2019/20 top scorer Sebastian Andersson coming in as a replacement, these two traded 2-1 scorelines with each other last campaign and a similar outcome here looks likely.
The goal line is tempting, you can get over 2.5 goals at 1.95 with 888sport. It is hard to argue against going for overs, Koln have scored in six of their last seven, conceded in all of their last seven leading to both teams getting on the scoresheet in six of their last seven. The visitors have been slightly stronger defensively, keeping two clean sheets in their last seven, scoring in all of their last seven with a both teams to score punt coming off in five of their last seven.
Koln have a part to play, they have underperformed in both boxes so far this term, finding the net just seven times with their chances created equating to 9.3 expected goals, and despite allowing too many opportunities to the opposition that sees them one of three winless sides in the division they have shipped 12 goals to just 9.5 expected goals. Their processes have not been as bad as their league position, 16th, suggests.
The alarming thing about the outstanding start from Urs Fischer’s men is that they are not in a false position. They are fourth in the expected goals table, scoring the second most and conceding the third least in the Bundesliga, creating the seventh highest quality chances and third for expected goals against, to a value of just six after seven matches. Max Kruse has turned out to be an inspired signing, his offensive prowess has rubbed off on the whole squad, young backup striker Cedric Teuchert has scored twice in his last 17 minutes of football, Union are in great shape and full of confidence for their trip to RheinEnergieStadion.
Koln are trending as a mid table side, Union are trending as a side that can compete for the Champions League spots, can they continue to ride the wave? They will give it their best shot.