Real Madrid to crawl over the line at decent odds
Real Madrid enter tonight’s trip to Getafe in LaLiga limbo. Lose and their hosts move within seven points of “Los Galaticos”, win and they remain four adrift of Atletico in second place. They are only playing for pride and squad places at this stage of the season and Getafe, with the bit between their teeth, have a much bigger fish to fry and I feel that could be the difference.
Getafe
Getafe have lost just one of their last ten games and only two of their home fixtures since January (against Barcelona by a single goal). That includes wins against in form Valencia, Bilbao and Sevilla, outscoring their opponents 18:7 in the process. Their formidable home form has been much the reason for their rapid climb up the La Liga table.
This fixture is key for them as a win would cement them 5 points clear of Valencia in the final Champions League spot with four games to go. At this stage of the season, I like looking for teams who have either momentum of a run of wins or teams who have the most to play for. It is why you see so many shocks at the back end of league football. Teams near the bottom digging out a result against a team who can’t dramatically improve their standing before the end of the campaign.
Real Madrid
Real are in the midst of a blip in their away form. Defeat at the Mestalla was compounded by a damaging draw at Leganes and this fixture has become one of the more difficult LaLiga assignments this season. They have conceded the first goal in their last three away games, only coming alive in the second half, where they have scored five of their six goals across these games.
One stat in Madrid’s favour is their recent record away at Getafe. They have won the last four trips to the Coliseum Alfonso Perez. Real are without Sergio Ramos and their away games this season have thrown up some nice stats to follow for tonight’s fixture. BTTS has occurred in seven of their last eight away games in the league and O2.5 has come in with the same frequency.
So, both of those should be on the table as bet builders if you fancy something at greater odds. One further knock on Getafe, they have won only a third of their home league games where they have entered the game as outsiders with the bookies, telling us that they don’t often defy the odds.
Getafe - Real Madrid betting tip
Very tempting to keep it simple and side with a home win at 13/5. You cannot rely on this Real Madrid side right now and Zinadine Zidane has a lot of work on his hands. The fact that they will hold no fear of the trip to Getafe and the hosts inability to raise their game against superior opposition gave me cause for concern, however.
In the end I have decided to take Real Madrid and BTTS which is a tantalizing 11/4. Given Los Galacticos recent tendencies I think that this proves the best value bet on the market.
