Entertaining Eredivisie love a Saturday night goal
The battle for automatic Europa League qualification comes to the De Kuip with Feyenoord knowing that should they avoid defeat to their nearest rivals, their destiny will be left in their hands in the coming weeks.
Feyenoord come in to this on a three-game win streak, easily dispatching of Heracles, Venlo and Heerenveen and scoring eight goals in the process. Victory will effectively seal Europa League qualification and only the top two teams (PSV/Ajax) have picked up more points at home this season. They have won 13 and lost two of their games at home, crucially without a draw, something which I feel might change today given the stakes riding on the game. Something to keep an eye on, Feyenoord have managed to keep clean sheets in 3/10 games, but two of these were against Emmen and Venlo who are both nearer the bottom than the top of the table.
AZ come into this in indifferent form, two draws and a loss in their latest game against Den Haag. Yet some of their statistics let well to finding some value in this fixture for me. They have drawn their last three away fixtures, they have only failed to score once in their last fourteen away fixtures stretching back to October and my favourite part, they have scored the opening goal in 22/30 (73.33%) of their league games this season. This means two bits of value spring to mind. AZ to be leading at half time and all of the BTTS markets.
Throw in the fact that Feyenoord average 1.6 second half goals this season, with 58% of those coming in the 2ndhalf at home ,you can put pieces together of how the game might unfold. Both teams like to score often, they don’t defend particularly well against potent attacks and in a high-pressure situation, this will only be exasperated.
Betting Tip
My favourite selection in league games of significant importance is the draw, especially in this situation in which the draw won’t end AZ hopes nor will it dent Feyenoord’s confidence. Given the statistical options I’ve mentioned in the build up,I think there is great value in the BTTS draw at 7/2.
AZ are coming in knowing realistically they need a win, so will come out and play, they tend to score often and early in their Eredivisie games this season. Feyenoord know that they just dare not lose and that should be enough. They usually do their best work in the second half. If this game plays out as you’d statistically expect, the score draw is the most likely outcome.
A couple other punts I’d throw in, AZ to lead at HT & fail to win is 15/2, Feyenoord to win the second half is EVENS. Both of those along with the main selection present great value for me no matter what you level stake is for the evening.
