Top 10 push still on for Udinese
Exciting bottom-feeders Crotone host Luca Gotti’s conservative Udinese side who will have an eye on a top 10 finish. With eight games remaining the visitors are 3 points off the top half and their trip to Stadio Ezio Scida present the perfect opportunity to close that gap. Despite their terrible domestic form, Crotone have provided outstanding entertainment in recent weeks, with 34 goals coming in their last 6 games. Their future already looks settled on a return to Serie B, currently sitting in 20th - 12 points from safety. The freedom of knowing their fate has seen a release of the shackles giving their Nigerian striker a platform to express himself, 28-year-old Simy has scored 9 in 6 and now occupied 4th place in the scoring charts.
Process
The Pythagoreans have thrown caution to the wind and found their feet in front of goal albeit continuing their woeful record in defending their own goal. Simy has equated for 43% of their Serie A goals this term, such form that will have sparked interest from plenty of admirers. They rank 15th for goals scored this season notching 5 more than Saturday’s opponents. However, there is no realistic chance of survival when you consistently ship goals so heavily.
Udinese have been one of the biggest outliers in terms of expected goals this season, consistently far more comfortable at keeping the opposition out than creating high quality chances themselves. They rank 10th for expected goals for, but have under-performed that metric by 9.8 expected goals - the mean reason why they are not comfortably inside the top half of the division. For defensive process, they have the sixth best record but once again have seen an under-performance of their expected goals data peg them back into mid table mediocrity.
Goals?
With Crotone’s goal potency of recent weeks, it is tough to pinpoint a goals angle. Therefore, an outright play looks the most reliable punt.
- Crotone have scored in seven of 10
- Crotone have conceded in 10 of 10 and in all of their last 18
- Crotone have seen both teams score in seven of 10
- Crotone have seen over 2.5 goals in nine of 10
- Udine have scored in seven of 10
- Udine have conceded in seven of 10
- Udine have seen both teams score in four of 10
- Udine have seen over 2.5 goals in three of 10
This fixture sees little to play for for either side, but Serie A has delivered extremely competitive football week in week out this campaign and I do not expect a regression in that as we enter the final stretch.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Simy got on the scoresheet once again but a Rodrigo De Paul double won it for Udinese. 1-2.