Benevento on the slide, can we profit?

Relegation threatened Benevento host upper mid table outfit Hellas Verona in this midweek’s Serie A action looking to give themselves some breathing space with the gap to the drop cut from 10 to seven points over the weekend. Hellas continue to be one of the more inspiring underdogs in Serie A’s topflight, possibly going under the radar a touch with the impressive fortunes of Atalanta and Sassuolo stealing the limelight. The visitors are unbeaten in three and held the Champions Juventus to a 1-1 draw last time out, they will fancy their chances of increasing the Sorcerers’ relegation anxiety. Ivan Juric’s men are value favourites.

Process

We are already seeing Hellas’ statistics regress to the mean, having overperformed in defence this season but with just once clean sheet in 15 Serie A outings, none in their last nine, a reality check is materialising. However in this match they come up against the third worst attack in the division and one in poor form, there are anti Benevento plays aplenty to be had in the next few weeks. Hellas have scored 31 goals from 29.5 expected, a sustainable lower mid table attacking process but they punch above their weight conceding the fourth least in the league with 27 from 35.3 expected goals, do not bank on them being up there for goals against come the final stretch of the campaign.

The main issues are in offense for the hosts, they have scored 25 from 27 expected goals this term, but it has been dropping off, and their defensive process is not pretty. Benevento have let in 44 goals from 41.9 expected ranking 18th for both metrics. Only one player has reached five league goals for Filippo Inzaghi’s men, you do not need a good goalscorer to achieve success, but it helps and their chance creation is not a strength. A regression in clinicality will see them sucked into the dog fight.

Goals?

Unders for me, despite the entertaining nature of Serie A this term, for me Hellas have the rearguard to restrict the hosts to zero or one goal, they also do not sparkle going forward themselves, only scoring more than one goal in four of 13.

• Benevento have scored in six of 10, but not in their last two.
• Benevento have conceded in nine of 10.
• Benevento have seen both teams score in six of 10.
• Benevento have seen over 2.5 goals in five of 10.
• Hellas have scored in eight of 10.
• Hellas have conceded in nine of 10.
• Hellas have seen both teams score in seven of 10.
• Hellas have seen over 2.5 goals in five of 10.

Hellas outright appeals, but I want to get the draw on side in case this one becomes quite dry.

Benevento - Hellas Verona Betting Tip

Double Chance Hellas Verona to Win or Draw + Under 3.5 goals with Betway at odds of 21/25 or 1.82.

Bet Double Chance Hellas Verona to Win or Draw + Under 3.5 goals on Betway