Potential title decider at Camp Nou

With the knowledge that a win would see them leapfrog their opponents with just three matches to play, Ronald Koeman’s Barcelona host Atletico Madrid in arguably the biggest match of the La Liga season so far. Atleti have been the pace setters for the vast majority of the campaign, at one point stretching their lead by around 10 points, with the finishing line in sight it is just two, certainly the best La Liga title race we have seen in years, possibly since Diego Simeone’s men won the league back in 2013/14. Barca are odds on favourites which does not surprise, but with the attacking talent they possess, they should be able to break down Atleti’s low block.

Process

Very reliant on the consistently world class performances of Jan Oblak, the Mattress Makers have been slightly punching above their weight all season. They have the best defensive record in the division, conceding just 22 times from 34 matches, however rank third for expected goals against. The often ruthless nature of Barcelona in offense could be their undoing. The stage is set for Luis Suarez to bite his former employers, the questionable hierarchy at Barcelona definitely made a mistake in letting the Uruguayan move on to a direct rival.

The Catalan Giants are top of the expected goals standings and have been for some time, despite finding themselves third in La Liga due to a negative head-to-head record against Real Madrid. Their strength lies going forward, a position they will find themselves in plenty of times against Atletico, scoring 80 goals from 76.4 expected goals, they are the most accomplished attacking side. Lionel Messi tends to put the team on his shoulders in moments like this, especially in La Liga, he can produce his best form in the biggest matches, if he does hit his straps, Atleti will not have the answers.

Goals?

Hard to see a play here, if there is an early goal then it could explode into life, otherwise I see the occasion making this one fairly low scoring.

  • Barca have scored in 10 of 10 and all of their last 17.
  • Barca have conceded in eight of 10.
  • Barca have seen both teams score in eight of 10.
  • Barca have seen over 2.5 goals in eight of 10.
  • Atleti have scored in seven of 10.
  • Atleti have conceded in five of 10.
  • Atleti have seen both teams score in three of 10.
  • Atleti have seen over 2.5 goals in three of 10.

Barca are the more fluid team and should create higher quality chances, they are the pick for me.

Barcelona - Atletico Madrid Betting Tip

Barcelona to Win with Betway at odds of 4/5 or 1.78

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