A must win match for Azerbaijan
After a few excellent weeks of football behind us it's back to the international break and specifically the UEFA Nations League which has made international football just that little bit more exciting. On Saturday evening Azerbaijan will take on the Faroe Islands, a game in which I will be betting on the home team to win.
League D - Group 3
- Kosovo 8p, +4
- Azerbaijan 6p, +3
- Faroe Islands 4p, -3
- Malta 2p, -4
Azerbaijan
Azerbaijan are currently second in their group, two points ahead of the group leaders Kosovo with two matches in hand. This is the lowest ranked group in the UEFA Nations League and in order to achieve promotion you will need to win your group. Azerbaijan are currently undefeated in their group having managed to draw three out of their four matches. Now they have to go for the win if they are to stand a chance of overtaking Kosovo who are expected to win their game in Malta. If both Azerbaijan and Kosovo win then the final fixture between the two teams will decide who is promoted from group D.
In the last round Azerbaijan beat the Faroe Islands away from home by three goals to nil, but only picked up a point at home to Malta, despite being heavy favourites for the match. The game finished 1-1 against Malta, but the scoreline heavily flattered the visitors. Azerbaijan had 64% possession, had a 20-6 ratio of chances and 13-0 in corners. Now they head into this Saturday's game as clear favourites, and if the they find the goal this time, they'll have a good chance of winning this match, and by some margin.
Faroe Islands
Ok they might not be a footballing powerhouse but The Faroe Islands should not be underestimated in this group and I think they play some nice football. On their infamously windy home pitch they are hard to beat. Despite this they have struggled in Group D, only managing one win which came at home against Malta. They also picked up a draw at home to group leaders Kosovo. They have only played one away game this Nations League which was against Kosovo, where they lost 2-0, enjoyed only 33% of possession and managed only one shot on goal. Now, they will have make the long journey to Azerbaijan for a tough away game against a team that the Faroe Islands lost 0-3 to at home.
They have only played one away game this Nations League which was against Kosovo, where they lost 2-0, enjoyed only 33% of possession and managed only one shot on goal
Betting tips
Azerbaijan not only have to win this match but they have to improve their goal difference if they are to stand a chance of overtaking Kosovo in the last round. At home against travel-weary Faroe Islands I think they could really run away with this game, just as they did in their first meeting where Azerbaijan beat the Faroes 3-0 away from home. Azerbaijan were unlucky to lose at home against Malta and according to the statistics they should have won that match. After the draw against Malta I think the bettings sites have under-valued this Azerbaijan team's chances on Saturday. I think it will be a victory to the home team and I set their chances of winning at around 66%. I also think this could turn into a bit of thrashing, I am therefore betting on a Azerbaijan with an Asian handicap of -1.
