Atleti to keep Barca at arms length
A title race that has looked over at points this season looks to be coming into fruition once again with Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid suffering some understandable finishing line anxieties. The Mattress Makers will go six points clear of Barcelona in second place on Wednesday night if they can get the better of Marcelino’s Athletic Bilbao. It would put them in a commanding position, with 12 games remaining, not an unassailable one, but panic stations would be reserved for a few more weeks. They have the experience and winners in the side to get over the line, none more so than leading scorer Luis Suarez but conceding late on against city rivals Real Madrid last time out kept things interesting from a neutral perspective.
Process
Atleti are outperforming their expected goals data in both boxes on quite a consistent basis this season, one of the biggest overachievers in Europe according to the numbers. Having Jan Oblak and Suarez at each end of goalscoring touches has been a huge part of this but at some point, their fans will be hoping not this term, their stubborn process will come back to bite them. They have scored 48 goals from 39.7 expected and conceded just 17 from 27.3 expected goals, this is not sustainable and their lack of clean sheets and consistent results in the last couple of months has been a factor of their natural regression.
Athletic Club on the other hand have two Copa Del Rey finals next month and therefore their next three games may have a dress rehearsal feel. With Atleti in a position to sacrifice their Champions League ambitions for a better shot at the title, a goal down after their last 16 first leg against Chelsea. The visitors have scored 36 from 33.7 expected goals, 11th for attacking process and let in 29 from 28.1. Far stronger in defence just as the hosts, however low scoring matches have not been a recent trend.
Goals?
The price is too short, but an unders punt is tempting.
- Atleti have scored in eight of 10.
- Atleti have conceded in nine of 10.
- Atleti have seen both teams score in seven of 10.
- Atleti have seen over 2.5 goals in five of 10.
- Athletic have scored in all of their last 17.
- Athletic have conceded in nine of 10.
- Athletic have seen both teams score in nine of 10.
- Athletic have seen over 2.5 goals in four of 10.
Atleti were unlucky not to hold for all three points at the weekend, they can make amends in this one.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
An important win to start off the week, 2-1 Atletico.