More on the line for the holders in Bergamo
Atalanta and Napoli meet in Bergamo for the second leg of their Coppa Italia semi final on Wednesday evening. There is more on the line for the holders Napoli with Gennaro Gattuso under pressure from board level - harsh - as they look to earn their place back in the Champions League for next season. A competition where Atalanta find themselves in the last 16, hence why I see more focus being put on this fixture by the visitors. The away goals rule is active and the first leg finished 0-0 in Naples, in contrast to the bookies I am looking to side with Napoli.
Process
Atalanta have had consistently outstanding underlying data in the last two seasons, finishing top of the Serie A expected goals table last term, however this time around, with talisman Alejandro ‘Papu’ Gomez joining Sevilla last month, they have slowed a little, ranking fifth for expected goals. Gli Azzurri sit sixth in the standings, one spot above La Dea in Serie A and also for expected goals in fourth, of course this is a cup tie so league form cannot be banked on as much as it usually could, but with the situation these two clubs find themselves in this term, I find more reasons to see Napoli putting full focus on this outing as the games continue to come thick and fast.
Goals?
The under three goal line is very tempting at just below evens, but with this being a second leg with the potential to be ignited like so many two legged affairs do, I am not going to take a goals angle. Though the under three goal line looks good value.
- Atalanta have scored in eight of 10.
- Atalanta have conceded in six of 10.
- Atalanta have seen both teams score in six of 10.
- Atalanta have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of 10.
- Napoli have scored in eight of 10.
- Napoli have conceded in seven of 10.
- Napoli have seen both teams score in six of 10.
- Napoli have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of 10.
Cup ties are unpredictable and therefore I am looking to use the Asian Handicap market to find value but also insurance. There is value in backing Napoli with a three quarter goal start, with the knowledge that half your stake shall be returned if they lose by a solitary goal.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Got to hold my hands up here, La Dea were bang at it and Napoli without Kalidou Koulibaly could not cope, 3-1 Atalanta, they will face Juve in the final.