Watford's resistance to cave in eventually
Watford earned an impressive goalless draw at Old Trafford at the weekend despite allowing chances equating to nearly 3 expected goals (xG) to Manchester United.
The Hornets welcome Mikel Arteta’s top four pushing Arsenal side on Sunday and will be hoping to boost their survival bid.
The poor form of Brentford and Leeds United has made the relegation battle a little more interesting but a recent resurgence from Burnley means the Hornets need to get their act together before it is too late.
Roy Hodgson has a good record of shoring teams up defensively, albeit often sacrificing their output.
In attempting to push yourself on the right side of the fine margins with not too many matches remaining, that is a good tactic but it will not work every week.
Process
Watford have underperformed to score 25 from 31.9 xGF this season and are averaging 1.23 xGF per game for the season.
Emmanuel Dennis has made impressive strides in his first season in the Premier League, Ismaila Sarr and Josh King have shown their quality in patches but it looks like a contain job will be Watford’s mission in hoping to yield a valuable point against Arsenal.
Arteta’s Gunners are enjoying a season of progress and are in a strong position to kick on towards Champions League qualification.
Manchester United, West Ham United, Tottenham Hotspur and Wolverhampton Wanderers will hope to have something to say about that, but the trip to Vicarage Road certainly presents an opportunity to pick up maximum points in Arsenal’s top four bid.
The Gunners have a decent attacking process averaging 1.71 xGF per game but are not watertight at the back and Watford could go on to exploit that.
Goals?
Given Watford’s very limited attacking output in recent weeks, I have combined an unders play to enhance the odds in an outright play.
Watford have scored in four of ten.
Watford have conceded in seven of ten.
Watford have seen both teams score in three of ten.
Watford have seen over 2.5 goals in three of ten.
Arsenal have scored in six of ten.
Arsenal have conceded in six of ten.
Arsenal have seen both teams score in four of ten.
Arsenal have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.
Arsenal have an array of attacking talent that should enable them to penetrate the stubborn low block and get themselves on the clean sheet.
Watford’s resistance could frustrate them and therefore the winning margin may not be too comfortable, this angle gives us considerable breathing room as long as the Gunners do win the game.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Moussa Sissoko's late consolation scuppers us, 3-2 Arsenal.