Espanyol to stifle at the Mestalla
Valencia welcome Espanyol in Friday afternoon’s La Liga action as the Mates look to climb into European qualification contention. The visitors have a rich history in the Spanish top-flight but were only promoted from the second tier last season, Espanyol have acclimatised well back at the level but arrive at the Mestalla as comfortable outsiders. This has been a difficult match to unpick with no value really jumping off the page so I have leaned on the busy calendar to point towards a selection. Not an outright one, for me Espanyol are possibly a tiny bit big given Valencia are operating slightly above their level in La Liga at the moment.
Process
There are two obvious overperformances when looking at the expected goals (xG) data, but that tend to cancel each other out a little. The Mates have scored 30 from 25.8 xGF at an average of 1.43 xGF per game, Espanyol have been fortunate to not concede more, having allowed 27.4 xGA this term, but only letting in 21 goals. Jose Bordalas’ men have not been as defensively solid as his Getafe side notorious were in recent years, and sit 11th on expected points compared to eighth in the table.
Espanyol sit 11th compared to 14th in the xG standings but with an eight point cushion on the bottom three one game away from the halfway stage in the season, in the short term they do not have anything to worry about. Vicente Moreno’s men will be confident of taking something from the Mestalla but when you look at the individual talent on show, they are deservedly outsiders coming into this encounter.
Goals?
I am suggesting an unders punt here, Valencia have been firing unsustainably at the top of the pitch and Espanyol can stall them in their climb up the table on Friday afternoon.
- Valencia have scored in nine of ten.
- Valencia have conceded in seven of ten.
- Valencia have seen both teams score in seven of ten.
- Valencia have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
- Espanyol have scored in eight of ten.
- Espanyol have conceded in eight of ten.
- Espanyol have seen both teams score in six of ten.
- Espanyol have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.
Valencia are rightful favourites, potentially a touch too short, but given their attacking performances of late I am happy to get against their goal potency and select an unders play.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
A painful loser, Espanyol turned it around late on to win 2-1.