Cagey affair in Turin
I am going in with a short price selection for this matchup, lower than usual but it is a price that I can get behind presenting a lot of insurance. Torino have looked bright at the start of the season where Sampdoria certainly have not and therefore the Bull will be confident of picking up a home win. Samp are really struggling in both boxes at the moment and therefore justify going in as underdogs for this fixture.
Process
Torino have scored 12 from 13.6 expected goals (xG) ranking them 11th in terms of attacking process. The hosts are averaging 1.36 xGF per game and sit seventh for expected points in Serie A. The Bull have conceded just 1.14 xGA per game so far this season with the fourth best defensive process in the division.
The same cannot be said for Samp who are not charming the spreadsheets at the moment. 15th in the table but 18th for their process in the final third, the visitors have scored 14 from 10.3 xG and conceded 20 from 14.3 xGA, easily a relegation battling side in terms of defending their own goal.
Samp are likely to score less frequently if their process does not improve and also concede less. Therefore the data is pointing towards a lower scoring affair in Turin.
Goals?
That is my angle in for this match. The Asian goal line is great for getting a bit more insurance into your bet, earning your stake back or half of it with certain selections. I feel very comfortable taking a short price with confidence that we will at least see our stake returned on Saturday evening.
- Torino have scored in seven of ten.
- Torino have conceded in eight of ten.
- Torino have seen both teams score in five of ten.
- Torino have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
- Samp have scored in seven of ten.
- Samp have conceded in eight of ten.
- Samp have seen both teams score in six of ten.
- Samp have seen over 2.5 goals in eight of ten.
Value is value no matter the price and limiting the risk in a selection can be an effective tactic long term.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Andrea Belotti stops us from claiming a winner in the 93rd minute. 3-0 Torino.