Bolton providing value at Hillsborough
Sheffield Wednesday welcome Bolton Wanderers on Saturday in one of the most high profile domestic fixtures during the international break. This is a heavyweight clash for League One level with a newly relegated side taking on a newly promoted one. Ian Evatt’s Bolton have looked excellent this season so far and victories over Charlton Athletic and Shrewsbury Town have them coming into this fixture full of confidence. Despite the underlying numbers Bolton come in as outsiders here, which is a bit of value I am very excited about going into Saturday’s action at Hillsborough.
Process
Oladapo Afolayan would be right up there in terms of League One Player of the Year if the season ended now and the West Ham United youth product will be keen to earn some more plaudits in the depleted docket of Football League action this weekend. The Trotters’ expected goals (xG) figures are far superior to the Owls’ and they will not be overawed by the occasion.
Wednesday have been fortunate to concede just nine goals from 13.3 xGA and are without goalkeeper Bailey Peacock-Farrell who is away on international duty with Northern Ireland. The visitors have overperformed to score 20 from 16.3 xGF this season but are creating chances at will nonetheless. Bolton are averaging 1.48 xGF per game where Sheff Wed are just 1.14 xGF so there is clearly a better attacking contingent in Evatt’s ranks. Bolton are stronger but by a smaller margin defensively, conceding 1.26 xGA per game while the Owls are allowing 1.33 xGA per game.
Darren Moore’s Wednesday have been much more solid at the back than they have been electric going forward and the impetus for them to go out and perform at home plays into Bolton’s hands. Wanderers like to have a lot of possession but in the likes of Elias Kachunga, Eoin Doyle and the jewel in the crown Afolayan, Bolton can be devastating in transition.
Goals?
Given the Owls’ excellent defence conceding just nine in ten games I am happy to avoid a goals angle here but if the deadlock is broken early this could get very tasty.
The following numbers are a little skewed by the typically high scoring Football League Trophy but are still worthy reading when considering a selection.
- Wednesday have scored in eight of ten.
- Wednesday have conceded in seven of ten.
- Wednesday have seen both teams score in five of ten.
- Wednesday have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.
- Bolton have scored in five of ten.
- Bolton have conceded in eight of ten.
- Bolton have seen both teams score in five of ten.
- Bolton have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.
Big boy value on Bolton here but I will remain respectful of the market and use the handicap.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Bolton had the better chances but Wednesday were clinical to earn a 1-0 win.