End of season entertainment on Tyneside
Newcastle United have built a nine point cushion on the relegation zone heading into the final stretch of the Premier League season.
A very satisfying state of affairs considering the situation that Eddie Howe inherited from Steve Bruce and one that should safely see them through to an exciting summer transfer window.
Wolverhampton Wanderers have had a very promising first season under Bruno Lage, and will be hoping to finish strongly to continue building momentum towards next term.
Wolves are just five points off the top four with seven matches to play and will have outside hopes of securing European football for next term.
Process
Wolves have unsustainably overperformed in defence this season, and even with Jose Sa’s excellent performances, they will not be as watertight defensively if they do not start limiting the opposition more.
Incredibly, Wolves have conceded just 27 goals from 46.0 expected goals (xG) against, an overperformance of 19 goals which will likely not regress to the mean this season, but could next if Wolves do not improve their defensive process, currently allowing 1.48 xGA per game for the season.
Both sides have scored 33 goals this season, the Magpies have played one game fewer, summing up Wolves’ issues and why they are not much higher in the table, with Raul Jimenez struggling to get back to his pre-head injury best.
Goals?
Naturally, unders is considered but given the time in the season it is and the freedom that particularly the hosts can play with, I feel this match is more likely to go overs, so I have taken a goals-based selection.
Newcastle have scored in eight of ten.
Newcastle have conceded in seven of ten.
Newcastle have seen both teams score in five of ten.
Newcastle have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
Wolves have scored in seven of ten.
Wolves have conceded in seven of ten.
Wolves have seen both teams score in four of ten.
Wolves have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.
Newcastle are on the up, Wolves will regress at some stage, so it is easy to see why the hosts are strong favourites, but I will take both teams to score as there is limited value price-wise with the hosts.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
1-0 Newcastle, the Magpies building nicely for next term.