City value all day
Manchester United have an extra day of recovery from Champions League action before the derby on Saturday lunchtime. However, for me that only gives us a bit more value to capitalise on with the bookmakers probably setting a slightly bigger price on Manchester City to win the game due to less time to prepare. The Red Devils have been so poor of late that that should not make too much difference, it was a ‘paper over the cracks’ victory at Tottenham Hotspur last time out in the Premier League and City will be determined to make up for their home loss to Crystal Palace.
Process
United rank 13th for defensive process after ten games. I dread to think how much they have spent on the backline with the likes of Fred sat in front, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Harry Maguire, Victor Lindelof and Raphael Varane all coming in for a pretty penny. Yet that investment is currently returning a bottom half rearguard action. City rank second for their attacking process, underperforming a tad to score 20 from 22.2 expected goals (xG) which is an average of 2.26 xGF per game, they could have a field day at Old Trafford if they hit their straps.
There are not many sides in world football that can live with City if they perform to their potential and with the frustrating loss last weekend, Pep Guardiola will be intent on making amends with the supporters in style on Saturday. City have a breathtakingly good defensive process, the best in the division, conceding just 0.73 xGA per game with six goals conceded in the opening ten.
Goals?
The outright play makes me ignore any goals selection here, however the Asian Handicap could also be utilised to boost the odds if preferred.
- Man U have scored in seven of ten.
- Man U have conceded in nine of ten.
- Man U have seen both teams score in six of ten.
- Man U have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of ten.
- City have scored in six of ten.
- City have conceded in six of ten.
- City have seen both teams score in four of ten.
- City have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
If City were playing on Tuesday and United on Wednesday they would be a lot shorter to win the game. They have the squad to cope with it, and United played in Bergamo while City are staying at home anyway, it should make little difference.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Very very comfortable. 2-0 City.