Goals based at The Etihad

Manchester City play host to Everton on Sunday afternoon in hoping to close the three point gap between themselves and Chelsea at the summit of the division. A pragmatic Rafael Benitez will arrive at The Etihad knowing that in Abdoulaye Doucoure and Dominic Calvert-Lewin, two of his better players are out injured. It was a quiet and sensible summer window from the Toffees and they are potentially paying the price for that in struggling to cover the contributions of Doucoure and Calvert-Lewin. There is no value in backing City outright they are so short so getting involved with a goals angle is much more enticing from my point of view.

Process

City rearguard action is a joke data wise, they are by far and away the best defensive contingent in the division and will be confident of keeping a clean sheet in front of their home faithful. City have conceded just 8.2 expected goals (xG) against from 11 matches, averaging just 0.75 xGA per game, comfortably the best in the division.

Going forward they are not too shabby either but sit second to Liverpool in attacking process. City have scored 22 from 24.3 xG so far this term at an average of 2.21 xGF per game, very very healthy.

Everton are no match, ranking eighth in offense and tenth defending their own third.

Goals?

My angle here, there is value in unders.

  • City have scored in seven of ten.
  • City have conceded in six of ten.
  • City have seen both teams score in four of ten.
  • City have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
  • Everton have scored in seven of ten.
  • Everton have conceded in seven of ten.
  • Everton have seen both teams score in five of ten.
  • Everton have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.

City are rightful favourites and I fully expect them to win comfortably, but they are so short there is not even value in the Asian Handicap. I trust that Benitez can use all of his experience and make it competitive and I do not think he is going to fight fire with fire. Everton can sit in and get us and win on unders.

Manchester City - Everton Betting Tip

Under 3.5 goals with PariMatch at odds of 7/10 or 1.70.

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