Sunday afternoon entertainment at the King Power
Leicester City have not lived up to the standards that they have set in the last two seasons so far this term. The Foxes still command the favourites tag for their hosting of Newcastle United but are not as assured as they have been in previous years. Brendan Rodgers’ men were defeated 3-2 by Napoli in midweek and therefore may have more miles in their legs on Sunday. There is no way I can get involved with Leicester at the price given their performances this term and getting the Magpies onside might be a good angle into this fixture.
Process
The Foxes have scored 23 from 20.3 expected goals (xG), a slight overperformance but one that the style of Leicester’s attackers could make a little bit more sustainable that other sides. When you look at the types of finishes Jamie Vardy and Harvey Barnes are capable of, they are often of a lower xG value. Leicester have the second worst defensive process in the league and it is so alarming that they will not be able to compete for European competition if they do not address.
The Magpies have scored 17 from 17.6 xGF and let 30 from 28.7. This match includes two of the worst defences in the division, which points towards goals. Newcastle beat Leicester 4-2 at the King Power Stadium towards the back end of the season and dented their top four hopes significantly as a result, the Foxes will be seeking redemption.
Goals?
My angle, the numbers point towards overs.
- Leicester have scored in eight of ten.
- Leicester have conceded in all of their last 16.
- Leicester have seen both teams score in eight of ten.
- Leicester have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of ten.
- Newcastle have scored in eight of ten.
- Newcastle have conceded in nine of ten.
- Newcastle have seen both teams score in seven of ten.
- Newcastle have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
No clean sheet in 16 for Leicester. That speaks volumes, the Magpies have a great chance to build on last weekend’s victory.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
A disappointing loss, Leicester keep their first clean sheet for 17 games to scupper us. 4-0 Foxes.