Leeds to pounce on glaring opportunity
Leeds United looked very good in their 1-0 loss to Leicester City at the weekend, the first game of Jesse Marsch’s tenure in the dugout.
The Whites created the better chances and lost out to a moment of quality from Harvey Barnes in the second half.
Norwich City have been very poor in attempting to compete against the relegation this season, there has been some crumbs of positivity under Dean Smith but the Canaries do look to be heading back to the Championship.
Leeds have been atrocious defensively and so it would have been very pleasing to see them contain a dangerous Leicester attack for extended periods at the King Power Stadium, it was a game they would back themselves to win if it was replayed.
Process
Norwich are even worse than Leeds defensively according to expected goals (xG).
The Canaries have allowed 2.10 xGA per game on average this season where the Whites have 2.00 and lost the reverse fixture 2-1.
In Raphinha, Dan James and Joe Gelhardt there are enough livewires to cause problems, but Patrick Bamford and Kalvin Phillips will be huge players to come back into the side in the coming months.
Leeds have underperformed to score just 29 from 36.1 xG at 1.34 xGF per game, far healthier in the attacking third than the Canaries.
Smith’s men have scored 16 goals in 27 games, it is impossible to stay up with numbers like that, Norwich scored just under 20% of their league goals this season in a 3-0 win at Watford.
Norwich have created chances equating to 24.0 xGF, an average of 0.89 per game, but Teemu Pukki has not been as clinical as he has been in recent years and the Canaries look set to finish rock bottom as a result.
Goals?
Leeds have been an overs side since promotion to the Premier League, however Marsch is tightening them up and they will have identified the opportunity to keep a clean sheet against toothless Norwich.
Leeds have scored in four of ten.
Leeds have conceded in all of their last 14.
Leeds have seen both teams score in four of ten.
Leeds have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of ten.
Norwich have scored in seven of ten.
Norwich have conceded in eight of ten.
Norwich have seen both teams score in four of ten.
Norwich have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
This is a must win for Leeds and if they can replicate their performance level from the Leicester trip, they will pick up a huge three points.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Joe Gelhardt wins it for us in second half additional time. 2-1 Leeds.