Evenly matched derby in Serie A on Friday evening
Genoa host Sampdoria in the Derby Della Lanterna on Friday evening to provide some Serie A entertainment. The Griffin are concerningly placed in the table having won just one league game this season, Samp are better off but it is set to be a fairly evenly matched encounter. The Italian top-flight has been great viewing in terms of goals and high drama this season however, this matchup does not feel as inclined to produce a goal-fest looking at what is at stake particularly for the home side. Samp are favourites but still a nice price if you fancy them in the outright market but it is a goals angle that looks most appealing for an angle into this encounter.
Process
The expected goals (xG) data points towards a lower scoring affair than we have become accustomed to this season. Genoa have underperformed to concede 31 goals from 26.6 xGA and therefore will hope that a positive regression to the mean can see them climb out of the relegation zone in the coming weeks. Samp have also significantly underperformed to let in 32 from 25.5 xGA, ranking them one place above Genoa for defensive process in 14th. Samp are also running a bit hot to have scored 22 from 17.2 xGF so far in the league this season, the three unsustainable overperformances combined points towards a regression in finishing and an improvement in rearguard action in this fixture.
Goals?
Bit of a cliche but it does often have some truth to it. This one is evenly matched already and a derby game can often set a level playing field.
- Genoa have scored in four of ten.
- Genoa have conceded in eight of ten.
- Genoa have seen both teams score in four of ten.
- Genoa have seen over 2.5 goal in four of ten.
- Samp have scored in nine of ten.
- Samp have conceded in nine of ten.
- Samp have seen both teams score in eight of ten.
- Samp have seen over 2.5 goals in nine of ten.
In a match where no obvious angle is jumping out from the numbers, taking the unders seems like the most sensible punt. Genoa have really struggled going forward and Samp are trending as a relegation threatened side in the final third, hopefully we can make a positive start to the weekend.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Samp comfortable winners, 3-1.