Spezia to be tough opposition in Florence
Fiorentina welcome Spezia to Florence in gameweek 11 of Serie A this Sunday with the visitors looking to pull away from the bottom three. Fiorentina have been very inconsistent so far this term, Dusan Vlahovic continues to go from strength to strength at the top of the pitch and will fancy his chances against a Spezia side who will be looking worryingly over their shoulders. The Purples will have aspirations to finish towards the European spots this season, with a top seven starting to establish itself at the top of the table in recent years.
Process
The hosts’ expected goals (xG) data does not justify their position in eighth in the table. They rank 13th in the xG standings but have performed pretty much in line with their numbers this season. Fiorentina have scored 13 from 12.1 xGF which is very poor and ranks them 17th in the division, an enormous improvement in defensive process to rank sixth having conceded just 12.8 xGA.
Spezia have hugely underperformed in their own 18-yard box with 23 goals flying into their own net from chances equating to just 15.7 xGA. Little Eagles are 15th for attacking process which is better than the hosts but the numbers are pointing towards a low scoring affair, somewhat of a rarity in Serie A.
Goals?
My angle for this matchup. The throw another cat amongst the pigeons I think Spezia (+1) Handicap at above evens is great value however the Asian goal line is more appealing to me.
- Fiorentina have scored in eight of ten.
- Fiorentina have conceded in eight of ten.
- Fiorentina have seen both teams score in six of ten.
- Fiorentina have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of ten.
- Spezia have scored in eight of ten.
- Spezia have conceded in ten of ten.
- Spezia have seen both teams score in eight of ten.
- Spezia have seen over 2.5 goals in nine of ten.
Spezia will stop conceding so many goals if they can sustain their defensive process. Fiorentina have the sixth best defence in the division and both teams rank inside the bottom six for attacking progress. Screams unders for me.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
If Dusan Vlahovic was not an unbelievable talent we would probably have a win here. 3-0 Fiorentina.