Sunday evening entertainment in Florence
Fiorentina host Napoli on Sunday with Luciano Spalletti’s men looking to extend their stay at the summit of Serie A. Gli Azzurri have caught the eye across Europe at the start of this season with Victor Osimhen looking a wonderful up and coming talent. It looked like smart business when they signed him from Lille last summer and is paying dividends now. Dusan Vlahovic is the precocious forward in Florence and will be hoping to find the net in back to back games on Sunday evening. Napoli are odds against favourites and in terms of their underlying numbers look value but you cannot underestimate the toll their Thursday evening Europa League exploits will have and therefore a goals based selection is more appealing here.
Process
Fiorentina rank 13th in Serie A for attacking process scoring nine goals from 7.7 expected goals (xG). That is an average of 1.28 xGF per game a process that if their defensive one does not improve will see them continue to underachieve and finish in the bottom half of the division. Defensively it is a similar story, 12th in the division having conceded nine goals from 9.7 xGA so far and an average of 1.62 xGA per game.
Napoli on the other hand are looking every bit a side who could compete for the Scudetto if they can sustain this process. Spalletti’s men rank second in offense scoring 16 from 12.4 xGF which is an average of 2.07 xGF per game and top of the tree for defensive process. Gli Azzurri have conceded just two from 4.1 xGA and have kept three clean sheets on the bounce in Serie A, at an average of 0.68 xGA per game.
There are some really exciting players on both sides in this matchup and with fierce competition for places with the visitors in particular this could be some intriguing Sunday evening viewing. If Napoli had not played in midweek they would be significantly shorter on the market and therefore it is hard to argue against them taking all three points.
Put off a touch by Gli Azzurri’s 3-2 loss to Spartak Moscow a goals based selection is most enticing and in that an overs punt.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
2-1 Napoli, they are on fire.