Saturday Serie A cracker
One of the most hot and cold teams in Europe at the moment in Fiorentina play host to AC Milan on Saturday evening in what should be a quality piece of Saturday night entertainment. Milan sit in second place after 12 games and have shot out of the blocks to set the pace for the chasing pack with Napoli at the summit of the division. The Purples have won six and lost six so far in Serie A with Dusan Vlahovic continuing to demonstrate what an incredible prospect he is at the top of the pitch.
Process
Milan have been overperforming their expected goals (xG) at the start of this season and actually rank in sixth place on expected points. The visitors have scored 26 from 19.3 xGF, an overperformance of 6.7 ranking them fifth in the division with an average of 1.61 xGF per game.
In defence Mike Maignan has made a fantastic start to his career with Milan since his transfer from Ligue 1 champions Lille in the summer. Milan have conceded just 11 from 14.8 xGA at an average of 1.23 per game, a very solid process, but not one that would usually see you win ten and draw two in a 12 game stretch.
Fiorentina have been excellent defensively and sit third for defensive process conceding 1.17 xGA per game on average. If Serie A’s goal crazy recent past is anything to go by this will be a serious test for Milan, but I think there is something that the numbers are missing for Stefano Pioli’s men to be winning so many matches at the moment.
Goals?
An overs punt appealed initially however I was put off by Fiorentina's very impressive defensive process.
- Fiorentina have scored in seven of ten.
- Fiorentina have conceded in seven of ten.
- Fiorentina have seen both teams score in four of ten.
- Fiorentina have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
- Milan have scored in nine of ten.
- Milan have conceded in nine of ten.
- Milan have seen both teams score in eight of ten.
- Milan have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
We saw Milan start in incredible fashion last season, Pioli will be conscious and will be aiming to sustain this run. The Asian Handicap appeals to give us some insurance if the match ends in a draw.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Dusan Vlahovic at it again with a brace. 4-3 Fiorentina.