Leicester too short in South London
Crystal Palace host Leicester City on Sunday afternoon looking to put Brighton and Hove Albion’s late equaliser from Monday evening behind them. Two touches after a Vicente Guaita goal kick Neal Maupay broke supporters’ hearts in the 95th minute last time out, but the Eagles can bounce back this weekend against a Foxes side who were defeated in Poland on Thursday night. Leicester have looked a shadow of the side who finished fifth in 2019/20 and 2020/21 and won the FA Cup last term in the opening exchanges of this campaign and therefore it is a surprise to see them favourites at Selhurst Park.
Background
It would suit the Foxes to sit back and look to hit Palace on the counter attack in South London, the Foxes squad has a lot more miles in its legs than Palace’s at this stage of the season and seem to be more reliant on a 34-year-old Jamie Vardy than ever before and all the underlying numbers point towards the Eagles earning the favourites tag.
Process
Palace have scored just six from 7.7 expected goals (xG) which is an average of 1.28 xG per game, nothing exciting and maybe exaggerated by Wilfried Zaha’s recent penalties but it is still better than the Foxes’ process of 1.16 xG per game. Palace rank 11th for attacking process with Leicester just above the bottom three in 17th, Patrick Vieira’s men are arguably more suitable to play on away from home where the impetus is not on them to come out and attack teams. But their recent performances suggest they should give the Foxes a run for their money on Sunday.
Injuries have exacerbated Leicester’s defensive woes but they are trending as a relegation threatened team in 15th with an average of 1.57 xGA per game. The budding partnership of Marc Guehi and Joachim Andersen still has a way to go to produce consistently solid displays at Premier League, but there is promise nonetheless. The Eagles have conceded 1.32 xGA per game, so an improvement on the Foxes’ process.
Leicester are suited to playing away from home, but you cannot ignore the numbers, so far in the Premier League this season Palace’s performances have been stronger and they deserve respect in a selection for this matchup. With the prices the way they are we can manipulate the Asian Handicap in our favour to profit from a draw and a Palace win here.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Palace come back from 2-0 down to give us a winner. 2-2.