Union the play at the TQL
Struggling Cincinnati play host to Philadelphia Union on Sunday in MLS. The Orange and Blue are enduring a torrid campaign, playing for pride with a huge 20 point gap between themselves and the play-off places. The Union on the other hand are in third place with a three point cushion inside the top seven and will be hoping to build on that at TQL Stadium. The freedom of having little to play for can usually go one of two ways and with Cincy coming into this having lost their last five there has to be some value in the price of the visitors.
Philly are just under 2.40 to win the match outright when I cannot persuade anyone away from plumping for however, insurance is always sensible so once again I will be utilising the Asian Handicap for this selection.
The Union come into this fixture with three wins and a draw from their last quartet and still needing to pick up points to ensure they stay in the play-offs.
The Orange and Blue have underperformed to concede 52 from 43.3 expected goals (xG) over the course of the season but still rank just second from bottom for defensive process, averaging 1.6 xGA per game. The Union on the other hand have been overperforming but are still a side worthy of their spot in the play-offs. The visitors have been fortunate to conceded just 26 from 33.4 xGA but it is still a defensive process that ranks them fifth in the Eastern Conference.
Not for me in this matchup but here is a look into some of the recent numbers for the two sides.
- Cincy has scored in six of ten.
- Cincy have conceded in eight of ten.
- Cincy have seen both teams score in five of ten.
- Cincy have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
- Union have scored in seven of ten.
- Union have conceded in seven of ten.
- Union have seen both teams score in four of ten.
- Union have seen over 2.5 goals in three of ten.
The Union are definitely a bet here as they look to distance themselves between the clubs scrapping for a play-off spot.