Value on Burnley at cauldron-like Turf Moor
Burnley have picked up three wins on the bounce from nowhere to give themselves a great chance of securing safety in the Premier League once again.
Aston Villa are six points their superiors in the table, but their season is fizzling out a little alarmingly under Steven Gerrard.
Mike Jackson has had an excellent impact since Sean Dyche’s departure and appears to have retained the buy-in from the squad, if not increased it.
The Clarets have a two point cushion on Everton in 18th place having played one game more, the rescue act is far from complete yet, however, a win against Villa would be an enormous step towards Premier League football at Turf Moor next season.
Process
Nick Pope and Burnley’s outstanding defensive shape has helped them overperform their expected goals (xG) in terms of their rearguard this season, which could prove to be the difference between safety and relegation at this stage.
The Clarets have conceded just 46 from 55.5 xGA this season, over a 34 game sample it is an unsustainable overperformance, but with only four games to go, they may be able to put off regression until next season.
Burnley’s finishing has been poor this term and they have scored just 31 goals from 34 outings, the main reason why they have found themselves embroiled in a relegation battle.
Villa have a very talented squad but it feels like Gerrard is yet to settle and get his methods across completely.
The Clarets need the points more and have not been breached in any of their last three matches, home advantage feels like a significant factor at this stage of the season.
Goals?
Burnley are due to concede a goal or two given the shot data, but the market has given way too much respect to Villa, therefore an outright play is more enticing than a goals angle in this one.
Burnley have scored in five of ten.
Burnley have conceded in seven of ten.
Burnley have seen both teams score in three of ten.
Burnley have seen over 2.5 goals in three of ten.
Villa have scored in six of ten.
Villa have conceded in five of ten.
Villa have seen both teams score in two of ten.
Villa have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.
Burnley are playing out of their skin at the moment, and they demonstrated that never say die attitude to pick up a huge late win at Watford last week, avoid defeat and we profit from this selection.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
3-1 Villa, a missed opportunity for the hosts.