Early value on opposing lowly Leicester
Brighton and Hove Albion have a 48-hour advantage in preparation time to host Leicester City in the Premier League on Sunday.
The Seagulls suffered their first loss of the season at Fulham on Tuesday evening, but will back themselves to bounce back against the league’s rock bottom side, who host Manchester United on Thursday.
Graham Potter’s men have looked very good so far this season, even after losing Marc Cucurella, Yves Bissouma and Neal Maupay this summer.
The Foxes have endured a very difficult window, losing some key players and tackling some tough contract situations.
Brendan Rodgers appears to be frustrated with the quality of his squad, and that may be having a negative effect even sub-consciously.
Process
Brighton have been underperforming in the final third even though they have started well.
The Seagulls’ finishing has been poor for some years now, and they do seem to create lots of lower probability shooting opportunities rather than less but more high quality ones.
They won the expected goals (xG) battle 2.03 to 1.05 in their defeat at Fulham, and given how poor Leicester have looked defensively, Potter will be confident of hurting them in the final third.
The Foxes are allowing 1.83 xGA per game so far, an unsustainable process if they want to finish anywhere above lower mid-table this season.
With Fulham and Nottingham Forest starting very well this season, there is a chance that some clubs that have been stable in the top-flight in recent years struggle, and the Foxes could be one of those if they are not careful.
Going forward Leicester have been reliable in recent years, but they have only averaged 0.88 xGF per game in their opening quartet, a very worrying overall process, that could see Rodgers consider his future to preserve his reputation.
Despite being odds-on to win the match, with so much more time to prepare and with the way they have started the season compared to the Foxes, there is value with Brighton.
Potter’s men will likely shorten significantly going into the weekend, depending on how Leicester perform on Thursday, and therefore this could be a selection to get involved with before the weekend.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
A comfortable 5-2 win for Brighton hands us a profitable week.