Brentford a bet on their home patch
Brentford play host to Everton on Sunday in looking to get back pushing in the right direction in the Premier League. The Bees made an outstanding start to the season and really announced themselves to the rest of the division with impressive performances against Arsenal, West Ham United, Chelsea and Liverpool but reality has struck and the West Londoners have slid down the table in recent weeks. Everton are really desperate at the moment under Rafael Benitez with injuries to key players after a lacklustre summer transfer window. The Bees go in as odds against favourites as they look to push back towards the top half.
Process
Brentford have been better in both boxes than the Toffees and particularly impressive going forward. Thomas Frank’s men have scored 16 from 19.0 expected goals (xG) which ranks them fifth in the division for xGF. If they can carry on producing those kinds of figures going forward their form will turn in no time. At the back they are less impressive, but still of the level of a side who will not have to worry about battling relegation this season.
Everton have scored 16 from 17.3 xGF at 1.44 per game on average, fairly decent but recently that has been much more toothless. Abdoulaye Doucoure and Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s injuries have been very hard to deal with and so much so the Toffees are now falling away from any European qualification conversations. When you look at the squad at Benitez’s disposal, apart from a handful of individuals it is not surprising to see them in mid table and it will be interesting to see how they address the situation come the turn of the year.
Goals?
An unders punt did seem appealing at albeit a short price, but the recent goalscoring form and slightly less impressive rearguard action in terms of goals, rather than xG, put me off and onto the Asian Handicap.
- Brentford have scored in nine of ten.
- Brentford have conceded in eight of ten.
- Brentford have seen both teams score in seven of ten.
- Brentford have seen over 2.5 goals in eight of ten.
- Everton have scored in five of ten.
- Everton have conceded in eight of ten.
- Everton have seen both teams score in five of ten.
- Everton have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
Brentford are the bet here, using the handicap we can find some more insurance, with half of our stake returned if the game ends in a draw.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
An Ivan Toney penalty wins it for the Bees.