A cagey Saturday evening affair

Brentford host Chelsea on Saturday looking to continue their positive start to the season at the Brentford Community Stadium. The visitors sit top of the Premier League, one point ahead of Liverpool in second, with an immaculate defensive record letting in just three goals in seven league games. The Bees built momentum with a last gasp victory at West Ham United going into the international and will definitely create a great atmosphere for this London derby. It is a goals angle that looks the most appealing with either side very capable of picking up all three points on Saturday evening.

Background

Thomas Frank is doing an excellent job at the helm and it was yet another transfer window triumph this summer for Brentford whose smart recruitment has been a key component of their rise. The likes of Ivan Toney and Bryan Mbeumo will be a handful for every backline this season and one that Chelsea’s watertight backline will be well versed in when they arrive in West London.

Process

The Bees have the fifth best defensive process in the division and rank eight going forward but the most peculiar underlying data lies with the visitors. Chelsea have conceded just three from 9.7 expected goals (xG) which puts them tenth for defensive process. Those numbers are an unsustainable overperformance and we could see a regression after the international break.

The defence sticks out like a saw thumb as the Blues best area of the pitch as they look to build a title push. They rank fifth going forward having scored 15 from 12.5 xG more sustainable and especially when a striker of the quality of Romelu Lukaku is back.

Goals?

A goals angle is preferable here with the Blues looking to build solid foundations against the newly promoted side.

  • Bees have scored in seven of nine.
  • Bees have conceded in five of nine.
  • Bees have seen both teams score in four of nine.
  • Bees have seen over 2.5 goals in four of nine.
  • Chelsea have scored in seven of nine.
  • Chelsea have conceded in five of nine.
  • Chelsea have seen both teams score in three of nine.
  • Chelsea have seen over 2.5 goals in three of nine.

Bees held Liverpool to a 3-3 draw recently, Chelsea will have to bring their best game to make this one comfortable.

Brentford - Chelsea Betting Tip

Under 2.5 goals with PariMatch at odds of 4/5 or 1.80.

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