Evenly matched midweek affair on the cards
Bologna welcome Jose Mourinho’s Roma on Wednesday evening in looking to close the gap between themselves and the European spots in Serie A. Sinisa Mihajlovic’s men have been great viewing so far this season and look to be building from the solid platform that they have set in the last couple of campaigns. Just four points separates the two sides with Roma knowing that a win could see them break into the top four. Roma have not finished in the Champions League in any of the last three seasons which is why they have chopped and changed in their coaching staff, restoring them to Europe’s biggest stage would qualify as a successful first campaign in charge for Mourinho.
Process
Both teams have similar defensive expected goals (xG) processes but it is in attack that we may see the highlight of this fixture. The most impressive area of the pitch in this encounter so far this season has been Roma’s offensive contingent. Not something that Mourinho has been known for in the past, with him better remembered for producing teams that are notoriously hard to beat. However, I Giallorossi have the second best attacking process in Serie A.
Roma have underperformed to score 24 goals from 26.0 xGF at an average of 1.86 per game, with Tammy Abraham making an effective transition over from the Premier League. Lorenzo Pellegrini seems to have gone to a new level under Mourinho and spearheads Roma’s attacking contingent as their most effective player in hoping to seal Champions League qualification.
Bologna are due a shutout or two, Mihajlovic’s men have kept two clean sheets in their last four and will be hoping more are to come having unsustainably underperformed defending their own goal so far this term. Bologna have conceded 24 goals from 18.1 xGA which is a slight improvement on Mourinho’s backline. Not something we expected to see at the start of the campaign.
Goals?
My angle for this encounter, given the nature of some of the recent fixtures and the way the numbers are looking, a tight evenly matched affair could be on the horizon.
- Bologna have scored in eight of ten.
- Bologna have conceded in seven of ten.
- Bologna have seen both teams score in five of ten.
- Bologna have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
- Roma have scored in eight of ten.
- Roma have conceded in six of ten.
- Roma have seen both teams score in five of ten.
- Roma have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
Roma go in as favourites just above evens but this one will be closer than the teams on paper suggest.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
1-0 Bologna, comfortable winner.