Athletic to provide tough test for Galacticos
Athletic Bilbao play host to league leaders Real Madrid on the cusp of the La Liga winter break. The hosts have been one of the biggest underperformers in the division this season and will be hoping to shift the narrative going into the break, to keep supporters believing they can make a push for the European places in the second half of the campaign. Marcelino’s men have been much better than their league position suggests and with some smart business in the January transfer window they should be competing higher in the division next year. Real Madrid have a six point cushion on second placed Sevilla and will be hoping to keep them at arm's length with a victory at San Mames.
Process
The Lions’ expected goals (xG) underlying process has been extremely good as I have been alluding to, here is some context. Athletic have been averaging 1.66 xGF per game, which is the third most in the division but have underperformed unsustainably to scored just 16 goals from 29.9 xG. The rest of the league needs to watch out when they get on the positive side of some variance, trending as the fourth best defensive side in the league also suggests that they could still go on to push for a Champions League qualification place this season.
The Galacticos are very top heavy, they have not replaced the composure of Raphael Varane and Sergio Ramos at the back and it could come back to bite them in the second half of the campaign. Athletic could be worth siding with, their attacking underperformance will not continue and with Real Madrid the best attacking team in the division, this could be a very enticing encounter from a goals angle.
Goals?
My angle for this match is getting goals onside as Athletic look to go in the winter break with a bang.
- Athletic have scored in five of ten.
- Athletic have conceded in eight of ten.
- Athletic have seen both teams score in five of ten.
- Athletic have seen over 2.5 goals in three of ten.
- Real have scored in nine of ten.
- Real have conceded in four of ten.
- Real have seen both teams score in four of ten.
- Real have seen over 2.5 goals in five of ten.
Athletic will fancy their chances of causing an upset, the league leaders naturally come in as favourites but this one could be more difficult than the table suggests.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
Was bullish about this one, came in after ten minutes. 2-1 Real.