Flying Hammers ready for Villa test
Aston Villa welcome West Ham United to Villa Park hoping to push themselves to the top half after a stuttering start to the season under Dean Smith. Villa lost their talisman in Jack Grealish in the summer and coupled with a drop in defensive solidity do not look at all as dangerous as they did last season. Danny Ings, Leon Bailey and Emiliano Buendia have shown their quality in glimpses so far and will want to reinforce their quality against the best West Ham United side in living memory. To say that David Moyes has silenced his doubters with the Hammers would be an enormous understatement, the former Everton has done an incredible job and has United looking every bit a top six side for the second consecutive season, even with the Europa League distraction.
Process
Villa rank 13th in attack this season having slammed home 13 goals from 11.1 expected goals (xG). A small overperformance but given the sample size of just nine league games it is nothing to get too concerned about. Defensively, they have not hit the heights of last season with Tyrone Mings and Ezri Konsa not looking anywhere near as assured and they have conceded 15 from 14.6 xGA ranking them 11th in the table. Emiliano Martinez has had a meteoric rise in the last few years and performed excellently to win the Copa America with Argentina in the summer, with him between the sticks Villa supporters will not be worried when they look over their shoulders.
West Ham have scored 16 from 16.8 xGF and conceded 10 from 11.7 and rank third on expected points. They are a quality side no matter how you look at it.
Goals?
Not an angle in for me, but there are numbers worth taking into consideration.
- Villa have scored in nine of ten.
- Villa have conceded in six of ten.
- Villa have seen both teams score in five of ten.
- Villa have seen over 2.5 goals in six of ten.
- West Ham have scored in nine of ten.
- West Ham have conceded in three of ten.
- West Ham have seen both teams score in three of ten.
- West Ham have seen over 2.5 goals in four of ten.
Villa will take a draw from this but West Ham are value in a price above evens here but I will still lean on the Asian Handicap.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
4-1 West Ham, a comfortable winner and a profitable week.