Fiery Milan welcome hapless Hellas
High flying AC Milan welcome Hellas Verona to San Siro on Saturday evening looking to close the gap between themselves and Napoli in top spot. Stefano Pioli’s men are backing up their strong 2020/21 campaign and the visit of Hellas provides some low hanging fruit for their talented forward line. Milan have been spreading the goals out this season which is a sign of a free flowing side and with the fluid offensive contingent of Brahim Diaz, Ante Rebic and Rafael Leao, they will be a lot to handle for 12th placed Hellas.
Background
Milan are short here, no value but with the Asian Handicap there is an angle to be manipulated. Hellas have been very solid defensively in recent years but have not been able to replicate that this time around so far.
Process
Milan have scored 15 from 13.2 expected goals (xG) and rank third for attacking process. Pioli’s men are of a similar standard at the back, with another overperformance to concede just five from 7.8 xGA. That is a solid process averaging 1.89 xGF and 1.11 xGA per game, should keep them in the top four if they can sustain it.
The Yellow and Blues have scored 15 from 8.8 xGF, an overperformance that will not last. They are allowing 1.66 xGA per game and creating just 1.26 xGF, there is a reason why Milan are so short here.
Goals?
Not for me, but an overs punt could be likely if Milan can hit their straps early on.
- Milan have scored in nine of nine.
- Milan have conceded in six of nine.
- Milan have seen both teams score in six of nine.
- Milan have seen over 2.5 goals in five of nine.
- Hellas have scored in seven of eight.
- Hellas have conceded in six of eight.
- Hellas have seen both teams score in five of eight.
- Hellas have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of eight.
Milan are on fire and have won every home game they have had in Serie A this season by more than one goal. Therefore, the selection I am tipping here has come in all of Milan’s home league games so far. Hellas are looking poorer than Lazio and Cagliari who fell to defeat at San Siro.
AC Milan - Hellas Verona Betting Tip
AC Milan (-1) Handicap with bet365 at odds of 22/25 or 1.88.
Post bet chat Marcus's Tips:
3-2 Milan, Pioli's men continue their good form.